Economies

Interest Rate Super-Cycle

Super Long-term: A super-cycle bull market in rates occurred from 1946 to 1980. A related bear market from 1980 is due to end 2020-2021. The lowest of rates may have been seen. Chance for a truncated low in 2020-2021. A bull market for rates is to be present from the coming low into the 2030s. Although the super-cycle of rates-only shows the chance for above 10.0% to 17.0%, due to limiting macro factors strong resistance for the super-cycle is likely to begin around 7.0%.

Long-term: 3yr and 6yr business cycle peaks are due 2018-2019. The current call is for a recovery in rates into a peak in 2019 but should consider a long-term peak was recently forged. A related low is due 2020-2021 that will likely relate to a recession should also coincide with 9yr and super-cycle lows.

 

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