EconomiesStock Markets

Scenarios for the Long-Term

PR Analysis

Long-term: Scenario 1: Market bottomed for the 3yr business cycle in Jan 2018 or bottoms Jan-Apr 2019. (Consider support as around the 2018 low to 2440.)Then rallies into late 2019 to mid-2020 to complete the larger 9yr cycle that would end the bull market from 2009. The rally would likely be a roller coaster pattern higher. A bear market and recession in 2020-2021 would follow. Next step would be a 7-12 year bull market. Scenario 2: Market falls 15% to 30% by Jan-Apr 2019. (Consider 2440.00-2058.00 SPX.) And the economy turns to recession or nearly so. A 7-12 year bull market then begins. The bearish portion of this forecast is of 16% to 25% probability that is derived from the history of the 9yr cycle since the 1880s. Although of low probability, keep in mind a shift in fundamental and x-fundamental occurred at a fast pace to cause an abrupt bear market and recession. Today’s investors and businesses can flip just as fast if not more so. Scenario 3: The 3yr cycle bottomed Jan 2018 (Apr 2018 as a fundamental-based alternative), the 9yr peaked in Sep 2018, and the market should be of a roller coaster pattern lower into 2020-2021 for 3yr and 9yr cycle lows. Then a 7-12 year bull market to occur.

 

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