Long-term Event Track Record

Based on CSA and STA modeling that includes Business Cycles from short- to super long-term:

Called 1988, 1995-96, 2002, 2010-12 crop problems, cyclical climate change, and related bull markets. A call for a record price was achieved in 2008 for corn, and again in 2012. The R-model correctly called lower yield in soybean/wheat during 2017 and for corn during 2019. Follow us for updates for a cyclical crop problem and the bull market in the grains and oilseeds sometime 2021-24.

Called 2001-02 US recession and a related bear market. Called a long-term low in 2002 for the stock market.

Found it difficult to call a long-term peak in the economy and stock market in 2007-08, but was bearish for most of the drop. Warned that the super-cycles suggested chance for the worst economic setback since the Great Depression. Forecast that although the super-cycles allowed for -70% to -90% for the stock market that something would change to limit the downside to the performance of a lessor cycle at -40% to -60%. The market fell -55%. The economy fell into a Great Recession.

Called the long-term bottom in Mar 2009. Bullish into 2018-2020 with 2020 as the latest year for peak economy and a top in the stock market. This was based on the major long-term business cycle that is called the 9-year and known in economic circles as the Juglar cycle of business and markets.

Called a long-term bottom on Mar 25 or two days after the low for the US stock market relative to the SP500 index. I am holding a long-term buy only position from Mar 25 with a 67% gain as of Aug 5. Hope to hold it into 2028-2031 when the next major long-term cycle bearish event should occur. (A recession as well.)

The model output provides a variety of trends lasting minutes to decades.

It follows the behavior of 12 major groups of market participants. A quantitative portion of the model converts this behavior into a catalog of trends that can explain nearly 100% of price fluctuation in active markets.


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